By BryanC (Lorebrary Editor)
“We are readying ourselves to enter a long tunnel full of blood and darkness.”
-Andre Gide, 28 July 1914
As we watch a tense second season of the House of the Dragon with the spark of the Dance of the Dragons, I am reminded of Europe on the eve of World War I. In both cases, war was not inevitable, but trends, failures, and triggers echo one another in each case. Let’s look:
Arms Race
Europe: The European powers were heavily involved in an arms race, building large military forces and stockpiling weapons.
House of the Dragon: The black and green factions have nurtured dragons and their eggs.
Military Planning
Europe: Countries developed detailed military plans, like Germany’s Schlieffen Plan, which involved rapid mobilization and preemptive strikes.
House of the Dragon: Aemond and Cole devised a military plan to reach Rook’s Nest, while the black faction struggled to devise a plan, but they did have a naval blockade.
Complex Alliance System
Europe: It was divided into two main alliances: the Triple Entente (France, Russia, and the United Kingdom) and the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy). These alliances meant that any conflict involving one country could quickly include others.
House of the Dragon: Once Aegon II was crowned, Houses began to align. The black faction courted with the Starks, Tullys, Masseys, and Velaryons, while the Hightowers, Wyldes, Lannisters, and Baratheons joined the green faction. In Europe, the alliances were in flux (before 1914); however, no formal alliances exist here in Westeros, so these are even more unsteady.
Diplomacy
Europe: European powers’ inability to manage the crisis through diplomacy led to a rapid escalation of conflict.
House of the Dragon: We also see a race of diplomacy as siblings go to various towns to court various Houses. One specific tragic case involves Rhaenyra and Alicent, who both fail.
Immediate Trigger
Europe: The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary by Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb nationalist, on June 28, 1914, was the immediate trigger. Austria-Hungary’s response to this assassination set off a chain reaction of mobilizations and declarations of war.
House of the Dragon: The crowning of Aegon II.
Both World War I and the Dance of Dragons resulted from a mix of long-term causes and short-term events. These factors created a volatile situation that ultimately erupted into a large-scale conflict and destruction, but we can’t help but ponder the “what-ifs.”